Anthropic vs OpenAI IPO: Valuations, Winners and What It Means for the Market
The two biggest names in AI are lining up for Wall Street. Anthropic could price the largest IPO in history within weeks, while OpenAI is raising private money and waiting until at least 2027. Here are the valuations, who stands to win or lose, and what it all means for the market.
Based on public reporting through October 23, 2026. Many figures come from leaked or draft filings and investor briefings, not final public documents. Sources listed at the bottom of this post.
Where the AI IPO race stands right now
For years, the only way regular investors could bet on the companies building frontier AI was indirectly, through Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet or Nvidia. That is about to change.
Anthropic, the company behind Claude, confidentially filed for an IPO on June 1, 2026. After two delays, reports now point to a listing before Thanksgiving, with marketing to investors as soon as the week of November 9. Yahoo Finance reported this week that its public prospectus could appear within days. Early talk had Anthropic raising as much as $100 billion at a valuation near $2 trillion, which would top SpaceX’s June debut as the biggest IPO ever.
OpenAI filed confidentially a week after Anthropic, on June 8, but has since hit the brakes. In September, CEO Sam Altman ruled out a 2026 listing, saying “right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public.” Instead, OpenAI is in talks to raise about $30 billion privately at a valuation reported between $1.25 trillion and $1.4 trillion.
So the race has an odd shape. Anthropic goes first and takes the risk of being the test case. OpenAI watches, learns, and potentially prices its own IPO off whatever the market decides Anthropic is worth.
Anthropic’s valuation and numbers
Anthropic’s growth has been staggering. Revenue was about $4.6 billion for all of 2025. By the first half of 2026 it had already reached $16.3 billion, and the company told prospective investors that third quarter revenue alone hit $16.8 billion. Its last private round in May valued it at $965 billion, up from under $20 billion just two years earlier.
The catch is that growth is slowing from a blistering pace. Revenue more than doubled from the first quarter to the second, then rose about 45% from the second quarter to the third. After that investor briefing on October 14, Reuters reported that some investors started discussing a valuation closer to $1.5 trillion instead of $2 trillion. That is a $500 billion haircut before a single share has traded.
There is good news in the details too. Anthropic said it was profitable on an adjusted basis for a second straight quarter, turned cash flow positive, and brought in about $1.70 of revenue for every dollar spent on computing, according to the Financial Times. One investor told Axios the latest results were “spectacular.”
The risks inside the prospectus
- Huge losses on paper. The draft filing shows an $80.7 billion net loss for the first half of 2026, though roughly $72 billion of that came from noncash accounting charges tied to how Anthropic raised money.
- Massive compute bills. Anthropic could commit up to $750 billion to computing capacity in coming years, including roughly $111 billion with Google Cloud, $110 billion with Amazon Web Services and $31 billion with Microsoft. Much of that is owed whether or not it gets used.
- Customer concentration. About 20% to 25% of revenue comes from just two customers.
- AI safety. The filing warns that its own models could pose a “catastrophic or existential risk to humanity,” language you rarely see in an IPO document.
OpenAI’s valuation and numbers
OpenAI closed a record $122 billion round in March at an $852 billion valuation, led by SoftBank with Amazon, Nvidia and Microsoft also participating. Amazon alone committed up to $50 billion. The new round being discussed now would push that past $1.25 trillion before counting the fresh cash.
On revenue, OpenAI booked about $13.1 billion in 2025, and its annualized revenue run rate is reportedly nearing $70 billion. ChatGPT had more than 900 million weekly users as of March. Profitability is further away, though. The Information reported OpenAI lost about $1.22 for every dollar of revenue in the first quarter of 2026.
That gap helps explain the different strategies. Anthropic can show investors adjusted profits today. OpenAI would rather keep raising private money until its numbers look more like what public investors demand, and until it can see how the market treats Anthropic.
Anthropic vs OpenAI: valuation side by side
Valuation in trillions of dollars
IPO and new round figures are reported ranges, not final prices. Dashed bar marks a round still in negotiation.
| Anthropic | OpenAI | |
|---|---|---|
| Main product | Claude and Claude Code | ChatGPT |
| Last private valuation | $965B (May 2026) | $852B (March 2026) |
| Valuation being discussed | $1.5T to $2T at IPO | $1.25T to $1.4T privately |
| Recent revenue | $16.8B in Q3 2026 | Run rate nearing $70B a year |
| Profitability | Adjusted profit in Q2 and Q3 | Still losing money |
| IPO filing | Confidential, June 1 | Confidential, June 8 |
| Expected listing | November 2026 | 2027 at the earliest |
| Biggest backers | Amazon, Alphabet | Microsoft, SoftBank, Amazon, Nvidia |
At $1.5 trillion, Anthropic would trade around 22 times its annualized third quarter revenue. At $2 trillion, it would be closer to 30 times. That is a premium price even by the standards of fast growing software companies, so investors are paying for growth that still has to show up.
How the IPOs impact heavily invested AI companies
The companies with the most riding on these listings are already public, and their shareholders may feel the effects first.
| Company | Its AI bet | What an IPO could mean |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon | Roughly 15% to 21% of Anthropic, a $110B AWS deal, and up to $50B committed to OpenAI | Large paper gains, plus a cloud customer with fresh cash to spend on AWS |
| Alphabet | Roughly 10% to 15% of Anthropic and a $111B Google Cloud deal | Gains on the stake and a bigger buyer for its custom AI chips |
| Microsoft | About 27% of OpenAI, plus a $31B Anthropic cloud deal | A public price for its OpenAI stake if OpenAI lists in 2027 |
| Nvidia | Investor in OpenAI and chip supplier to both labs | IPO cash flows straight back into chip orders |
| Salesforce | A $50M 2023 Anthropic investment reportedly worth about $5B | A rare early AI win on its books |
| SoftBank | Led OpenAI’s biggest rounds | Most exposed to how OpenAI is eventually priced |
Amazon is the most interesting case. Alphabet has its own Gemini models and Microsoft has deep ties to OpenAI, but AWS built much of its AI strategy around Claude. Scotiabank estimated that at a $1.5 trillion valuation, Amazon’s Anthropic stake would be worth about $27 per Amazon share, close to 10% of its stock price, compared with about $16 per Alphabet share, around 5%. The bank also noted Anthropic’s cloud commitments make up roughly 22% of each company’s disclosed cloud backlog.
That cuts both ways. A strong Anthropic debut could lift Amazon and Alphabet through mark to market gains, and these gains are already showing up. Alphabet booked about $99 billion in net gains in the second quarter, driven partly by SpaceX and Anthropic. But a weak debut, or any sign Anthropic can’t keep paying those huge cloud bills, would hit the same stocks from the other direction.
What going public means for the stock market
A referendum on the AI trade
Wall Street has grown nervous about AI spending. Meta just saw the cost of insuring its debt hit record highs after raising its capex plans, and Goldman Sachs has estimated that the big cloud companies need hundreds of billions in AI revenue to justify their spending. Anthropic’s IPO puts a real public price on a pure AI company for the first time. A strong reception says the economics can work. A weak one could spread doubt across every AI stock.
A huge pull on investor cash
Raising up to $100 billion means investors have to sell something else to buy in. Large fund managers may trim Nvidia, Microsoft or other AI names to make room, which can create short term pressure across the sector in the weeks around the listing.
A benchmark for OpenAI and every AI startup
Wherever Anthropic settles after its first few weeks of trading will become the yardstick for OpenAI’s eventual listing and for private AI valuations across the industry. That is a big reason OpenAI is happy to wait.
Big IPOs don’t always pop
SpaceX is a useful reminder. It opened at $150 in June and closed at $144.75 this Thursday, below that first trade, even after a record quarter. Huge listings bring huge supply, and early buyers don’t always get rewarded. Lockup expirations, usually months after an IPO, can bring another wave of selling when early investors and employees are allowed to sell.
Three scenarios for the Anthropic IPO
Bull case: the AI trade gets its proof
Anthropic prices near $1.5 trillion, demand is strong, and the stock trades up. Amazon and Alphabet book big gains, the IPO window opens wider, and OpenAI moves toward a 2027 listing at a higher price.
Base case: priced to work, then choppy
Bankers price the deal conservatively so it holds up on day one. The stock trades in a range while investors wait for the first public earnings report, and AI stocks wobble briefly as funds rotate cash into the new listing.
Bear case: a reality check for AI
Demand comes in weak, the price falls below its offer, and investors start questioning $750 billion in compute commitments. Cloud and chip stocks sell off, and OpenAI pushes its IPO plans further out.
Our take: what these IPOs really mean
We think the valuation reset is healthy. A $1.5 trillion price on a company growing this fast, with adjusted profits and positive cash flow, is far easier to defend than $2 trillion. Anthropic has real momentum, especially with businesses and developers. But the bill for staying at the frontier is enormous, the customer base is concentrated, and the growth rate is cooling from a pace nobody could sustain forever.
OpenAI waiting is the smarter tactical move in our view. It gets to watch Anthropic go first, see how public investors value an AI lab, and walk in with more revenue and a clearer story. The risk is that if Anthropic trades poorly, OpenAI’s private valuation becomes harder to justify too.
For most investors, the biggest effect of these IPOs may not be the new tickers at all. It may show up in the stocks you already own, especially Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Nvidia. Watch how those four trade around the listing date. It will tell you a lot about where the AI trade goes next.
What to watch next
- Anthropic’s public prospectus, which will confirm the audited numbers, share count, ticker and exchange.
- The price range Anthropic sets once it starts marketing the deal, expected around mid November.
- How Amazon and Alphabet trade, and how they talk about their Anthropic stakes on earnings calls.
- Whether OpenAI closes its new private round, and at what valuation.
- The lockup expiration date for Anthropic insiders, which will be disclosed in the filing.
Anthropic and OpenAI IPO FAQ
When is the Anthropic IPO?
Anthropic hasn’t announced an official date. Reports point to marketing starting around the week of November 9 and a listing before Thanksgiving 2026, depending on market conditions.
What is Anthropic’s IPO valuation?
Nothing is final. Early talk centered on about $2 trillion, but after Anthropic’s latest investor briefing, some investors began discussing a valuation closer to $1.5 trillion.
When will OpenAI go public?
Not in 2026. Sam Altman ruled out a listing this year, and most reporting points to 2027 at the earliest. OpenAI is raising private money in the meantime.
Which stocks are most affected by the Anthropic IPO?
Amazon and Alphabet, which own large stakes in Anthropic and sell it cloud computing. Nvidia, Microsoft and Salesforce also have meaningful exposure.
Can regular investors buy Anthropic shares at the IPO price?
Most IPO shares go to large institutions, though some brokers offer limited IPO access to retail customers. Most individual investors will only be able to buy once the stock starts trading.
Sources and further reading
- The Globe and Mail (Reuters): Investors temper Anthropic IPO valuation expectations
- Axios: Why Anthropic can’t afford to delay its IPO
- CNN: Anthropic expected to IPO despite market uncertainty
- Fortune: A look at Anthropic’s leaked income statement
- Dealroom: Anthropic’s draft filing, revenue, losses and compute bill
- Yahoo Finance: Anthropic to publicly file for IPO
- FutureSearch: Anthropic and OpenAI IPO dates and valuations
- Arise News (Bloomberg): OpenAI eyes $30B round near $1.4T
- Yahoo Finance: OpenAI closes $122B round at $852B
- Yahoo Finance: Anthropic’s IPO is a test for Amazon
- The Motley Fool: What the Anthropic IPO means for Amazon and Alphabet
- SmartAsset: OpenAI IPO valuation and timeline
This article is for education and entertainment only and is not financial, legal or tax advice. We are not financial advisors. Many figures are based on leaked drafts, investor briefings and media reports as of October 23, 2026, and may change once official filings are public. Do your own research and consider talking to a licensed professional before making investment decisions.